Economía de la complejidad y la toma de decisiones: una visión desde la dinámica de sistemas.

Ricardo Pérez-Ortega; Laura Plazola-Zamora; Alvimar  de Lucena Costa Junior

doi:10.24275/uam/izt/dcsh/denarius/v22025n49/Perez-Ortega

Ricardo Pérez-Ortega Universidad de Guadalajara
Laura Plazola-Zamora Universidad de Guadalajara
Alvimar de Lucena Costa Junior

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/izt/dcsh/denarius/v22025n49/Perez-Ortega

Keywords: Decision-making, uncertainty, emotions, bounded rationality, cognitive delay

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of uncertainty, emotions and cognitive systems, modeled as time delays, on the efficiency of information processing and decision-making through time. These delays increase cognitive load, bounding cognitive capabilities and information processing of the agent. The modeling and simulation method is System Dynamics, drawing from Complexity Economics, Behavioral Economics, Rational Inattention Theory, and Information Theory. Results show that delays impact the entire system, hindering the agent´s ability to process available information fully. We conclude that cognitive efficiency depends on the agent´s cognitive capabilities and its adaptation to fluctuating levels of uncertainty, emotional flow, and cognitive load over time.

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Author Biographies

Ricardo Pérez-Ortega, Universidad de Guadalajara

Lecturer at the University Center for Economic and Administrative Sciences (CUCEA), University of Guadalajara. Ph.D. in Economic Studies (completed and in the process of obtaining the degree), Master's in Business and Economic Studies, and Bachelor's degree in Law, all from the University of Guadalajara. Teaches undergraduate courses. Research interests: Behavioral Economics, Complexity Economics, Financial Economics, and Corporate Law. Speaker at the XXXI EPIO RED-MIX Congress, 2020, Faculty of Economic Sciences, National University of Córdoba, and at the XI Congress of the Mexican Society of Operations Research, University of the Americas Puebla. Co-author of a book's chapter: I feel then I decide: Behavioral Economics in decision-making, in "Research in Economic-Administrative Sciences and Society

Laura Plazola-Zamora, Universidad de Guadalajara

Full Professor at the University Center for Economic and Administrative Sciences (CUCEA) of the University of Guadalajara. Ph.D. in Engineering with honors and Master's in Systems Engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Guadalajara. Teaches courses at undergraduate, master's, and doctoral levels. Has supervised theses at all three educational levels. Areas of interest: Multi-criteria Evaluation and Decision Making, group decision-making, decision support systems, complex systems analysis, Governance and public policies, and innovation in Mathematics teaching. Member of the Mexican Society of Operations Research and the Ibero-American Network for Evaluation and Multi-criteria Decision Making.

Alvimar de Lucena Costa Junior

Doctor in Science in Operational Research and Conflict Resolution from CTE-G/ITA. Master degree in Operational Research and System Dynamics from ITA's CTE-G in July 2018, and his dissertation presents a model of System Dynamics applied to a career flow. Degree in Aeronautical Engineering from Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (1997). Experience in the area of Air Transport Company Certification, with emphasis on air operations. Experience in Aircraft Operational Assessment, Flight Simulator Qualification for crew training and in air operations engineering regulation. Worked in Africa as an expert in the certification of airlines by the UN, and has been part of working groups on air operations regulation in Latin America and the ICAO, an agency related to aviation affiliated to the UN. Worked in the Institute for Research and Testing in Flight until 2018, as Coordinator of Strategic Planning and Supervision, until 2014, then Head of the Division of Testing in Flight until 2016, then Head of the Section for Innovation and Knowledge Management, uop to his retirement. Worked as a safety consultant in Offshore Aviation. Is Regulatory Affairs Specialist in a large
aircraft manufacturer.

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Complexity economics and decision-making: a system dynamics perspective

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