EL LEGADO DE LA CRISIS FINANCIERA: EXCESO DE CAPITAL Y EL ESPECTRO DE LA DEPRESIÓN GLOBAL

Abstract

The world economy and United States in particular achieved relatively quickly recovery after the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007. The quick way out of recession was the rescue by the lender of last resort, The Federal Reserve and then a continued credit expansion and more recently an expansion in money supply. Policy makers argue rightly that in the absence of such measures recession would have been longer-lasting and widespread globally. However the overcome of the crisis it is an illusion, because the oversupply of capital persists, opening the
prospect of deflation. With a current monetary policy almost exhausted a new strategy to confront the crisis is required. With Yellen currently as Federal Reserve Governor, the new strategy focuses on restoring monetary normality, which implies devaluating at least some of excess of the capital circulating around the world, through higher interest rate. As far as financial agents are dependents of ultra cheap money, that step would probably destabilizing financial markets; to counteract such risk the US economy need to be headed to recovery. Even if normal monetary policy is not counterproductive, causing another recession, the historical decline on productivity growth rate casts doubt on the effectiveness of the new strategy. These challenges are so huge that for the first time since the 1930s it is highly unlikely that the capitalism could overcome unscathed this deep perturbation.